The regional economy gave mixed signals for November, according to the report released Jan. 9 by the Center for Business Research and Economic Development (CBRED) at the University of Arkansas - Fort Smith.

 

The November Monthly Economic Indicators Index report for the Fort Smith Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) revealed improvement in retail sales for October, auto sales for November, and continued improvement in regional employment.

 

CBRED Director Dr. Kermit Kuehn of Fort Smith said that the regional economy showed more weakness this month than was evident in the last report.

 

According to the report, home sales for the MSA were off 11.5 percent from a year ago, breaking a string of positive months that began in July. Year-to-date sales remained 6.1 percent ahead of 2012, however.

 

“It appears that rising interest rates have begun to squeeze home buying activity in the area,” Kuehn said.

 

Residential construction permit activity declined sharply in November relative to last year with only 23 permits pulled for the month. Kuehn noted that while this month’s numbers were lower than the five year average, last year’s 102 units was uncharacteristically high for this time of year.

 

Year-over-year permit activity dropped into the red for 2013 as a result. The 470 permits pulled through November were 5.4 percent lower than in 2012 for the same period.

 

October retail sales eked out a .9 percent increase over a year ago. Year-to-date retail activity for the MSA has remained in positive territory relative to 2012, up .6 percent for 2013.

 

"Retail activity in the area has been weak for most of 2013," Kuehn said. “It suggests that the recent holiday shopping season will come in soft as well when the results are posted over the next couple of months.”

 

New and used auto sales continued to rise year-over-year with sales up a modest 1.3 percent over November 2012. Year-to-date sales remain respectable, up over 9 percent so far in 2013.

 

Kuehn noted that new car sales continued to be strong in November in terms of unit sales, but have come at the expense of used car sales. He noted that total unit sales for the year are relatively unchanged from 2012.

 

According to the report, total non-farm employment for the Fort Smith MSA of 119,700 people employed reflected 2,500 more jobs in the MSA than what was reported in November a year ago. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent, the lowest since late 2008.

 

Kuehn stated that the drop in the unemployment rate was largely due to a decline in the number of people working or looking for work and not from a resurgence in regional employment.

 

Airport traffic numbers were lower again in November, down 6 percent year-over-year. Passenger traffic for the year remains 2.9 percent below a year ago at this time.

 

The report is sponsored by Arvest Bank. For more information on the center, go to http://business.uafs.edu/outreach/economic-development, call 479-788-7938 or email CBRED@uafs.edu.